![]() ![]() Which states were won by a relatively slim margin in both While this map focuses on swing states, thereĪre other states that might be useful for campaigns to focus on.įor instance, a state that was won by the same political party inīoth 20 by a relatively small margin may stillīe an important state to send campaign resources. For presidential elections, Alaska is not usuallyĬonsidered a swing state, although it can be for midterm Which generally votes for the Republican candidate for president,īut which may vote for more moderate Democratic candidates at the States that consistently and strongly vote for one political partyįor president may still be likely to vote for candidates from the In a single state or an area in a single state, such as senators orĮlections feature candidates who must campaign in multiple statesĪnd thus appeal to a more national audience. Midterm campaigns feature candidates who only campaign Such as the one that took place in 2020 and will take place in 2024. It's important to consider the differencesīetween midterm elections, such as the one that took place in 2022, and presidential elections, May favor either party in any given election. ![]() These swing states are politically volatile and States swung from one political party to the other between the 20 elections. You've created a map that highlights which Add election dataįirst, you'll add data for the presidential election in November 2020 and the midterm elections in November 2022 for the entire United States. In this tutorial, you'll conduct a visual analysis of potential swing states by reviewing a map of election results from the 2020 presidential and 2022 midterm elections and identify states that swung from one party to the other. These states, which can be decided by a change in relatively few votes, are called swing states.īecause demographics and voting patterns change over time, the states that are considered swing states are not the same in every election. To increase the odds of winning the election, their campaigns prioritize investing resources into states that could be reasonably won by either major political party instead of investing in states that historically favor one party over the other. Because of these costs, candidates cannot campaign everywhere. Illustration by Tim Lahan / for NBC News.In the United States, presidential campaigns require significant amounts of money, time, and people. Development and design by Robin Muccari, Nigel Chiwaya, Jiachuan Wu and Sophie Andrews. Finally, we adjusted the size of each demographic group by doubling census-estimated population change for voting-age citizens from 2016 to 2018.ĭata analysis by David Wasserman. We then applied these estimates at the county level and used a statistical technique (called iterative proportional fitting) to “fit” the estimates to actual vote results before reconstructing them at the state level. Specifically, we used exit polls and data from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to estimate each demographic group's partisan preference, and data from the Census Bureau's 2016 report on voting and registration to estimate each group's turnout level. To build a baseline model of the 2020 presidential election we started with the results of the 2016 election, measuring the support for President Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton by race, college education and age in each state. ![]()
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